Dan Guild is a lawyer and project manager who lives in New Hampshire. In addition to writing for Bleeding Heartland, he has written for CNN and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. He also contributed to the Washington Post’s 2020 primary simulations. Follow him on X @dcg1114.

“Money is the mother’s milk of politics” – Jesse Unruh

Modern politics is governed by one rule: TV advertising is effective and determines who wins elections.

But against this irresistible force rests an immovable object: President Donald Trump’s approval rating. This table represents the shocking shift in public opinion in the battleground U.S. Senate seats. Data on Trump’s 2024 vote share and approval come from my polling database; approval is based on the average of all polls ended between August 1 and October 23, 2026.

Ed Tibbetts, a longtime reporter and editor in the Quad-Cities, is the publisher of the Along the Mississippi newsletter, where this post first appeared. Find more of his work at edtibbetts.substack.com.

Suddenly, Ashley Hinson is trying to convince us she’s OK with Democrats; that she’s working with them to lower costs.

This is quite a change for Iowa’s wannabe senator. A year ago, she accused Democrats of trying to create a “crazy liberal dystopia.”

She said “radical left lunacy” had ruined states run by Democrats.

She accused Democrats of trying to push the U.S. “past the brink,” and she pledged her unending loyalty to Donald Trump, who regularly calls members of the Democratic Party “radical left dumocrats.”

“I will not let you down,” Hinson adoringly promised the president last year.

But now Hinson is trying to tell us she’s not so much MAGA as moderate; that she’s “working with people in both parties” to lower costs.

Chip Albright is a lifelong Midwesterner with rural Kansas roots and urban Iowa branches, an independent singer-songwriter, storyteller, and strategist seeking beauty and truth in this wild & wonderful world. Visit chipalbrightmusic.com for music and more.

Since I wrote “If It’s Turek, That’s Terrific!” earlier this year, I have witnessed Josh Turek up close and personal on many occasions. The more I see and hear him in action, the more I believe he is the resilient leader and pragmatic policymaker we so desperately need representing the people of Iowa in Washington, D.C.

My first personal interaction with Josh Turek was when an unknown number with a “712” area code rang my phone back in April. It didn’t say “potential spam,” so I went ahead and answered it. Josh was on the line— he heard the song I wrote about his candidacy and wanted to personally thank me for my efforts and support. He was in the midst of a heated race with Zach Wahls for the Democratic nomination but he made time for me — a single constituent with a simple folk song. We chatted for a spell; the whole experience was quite genuine.

“Not enough people know the story about how this court got captured by a bunch of creepy right-wing billionaires,” U.S. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse told hundreds of Iowa Democrats on August 29.

The senator from Rhode Island used much of his speech at the Polk County Steak Fry to describe what he and U.S. Representative Jamie Raskin—another featured speaker at the event in Des Moines—would be able to accomplish as leaders of the Senate and House Judiciary Committees, if Democrats gain control of Congress after the November elections.

When U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson was gearing up to run for Senate last year, her primary objectives appeared to be pleasing the “audience of one” in the White House and clearing the Republican field. Within days of her campaign launch, she had locked down support from President Donald Trump and most of the GOP establishment.

That should have been enough in a state where Democrats haven’t won a U.S. Senate race since 2008, and Republicans enjoy a large voter registration advantage.

Things haven’t gone according to plan.

Whether you consider Iowa’s U.S. Senate race a toss-up (like the Cook Political Report, the Silver Bulletin, and Fox News), tilting Republican (Inside Elections) or still leaning in Hinson’s direction (Sabato’s Crystal Ball), one fact is undeniable: Hinson and her allies are trying to change the dynamic of the campaign.

Their twofold strategy is to tear down the Democratic nominee, State Representative Josh Turek, while shoring up Hinson’s support with conservatives. And they have good reasons to worry.

Since the demise of the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, we have rarely seen snapshots of Iowa voters not connected to any campaign or group planning to spend heavily on behalf of one candidate.

So it’s worth digging into the numbers Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media released on August 6 after surveying 712 “likely voters” from August 2 through August 4. The toplines show Democrat Rob Sand leading the governor’s race and Republican Ashley Hinson slightly ahead (but within the poll’s margin of error) in the U.S. Senate race. Let’s look under the hood.

Douglas Burns is a fourth-generation Iowa journalist. He is the co-founder of the Western Iowa Journalism Foundation and a member of the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative, where this article first appeared on The Iowa Mercury newsletter. His family operated the Carroll Times Herald for 93 years in Carroll, Iowa where Burns resides.

Greene County Attorney Thomas Laehn, the only Libertarian Party candidate ever elected in a partisan contest in Iowa, intends to use the Constitution to break the Democrat-Republican stranglehold on the nation’s government in his race for the U.S. Senate, he said in a wide-ranging, hour-long interview last week in Jefferson.

Laehn, who says the American Republic is now an elective monarchy with oligarchic influences, is a fierce critic of the government use of eminent domain for private-interest carbon-capture pipelines. He thinks abortion should be decided fully at the state level, although Laehn describes himself as “radically” anti-abortion, who if elected at the state level, would support a total abortion ban.

He supports decriminalization of marijuana possession and use, which he says is the first bill he’d introduce in the Senate.

Iowa Democrats will nominate either State Senator Zach Wahls or State Representative Josh Turek for U.S. Senate today. Both are smart and passionate, both have been effective legislators, and both have a solid grasp of the issues.

Since many readers have asked for my thoughts on the primary, I am taking a critical look at key arguments the campaigns have made for and against each candidate. My goal is not to persuade anyone to vote a certain way, but to lay out which points strike me as fair and accurate, and which seem unjustified or misleading.

Choosing between two qualified, capable candidates is inherently subjective. What is obvious to you may seem absurd to me. A deal-breaker for me may not trouble you. So for all points discussed below, your mileage may vary.

Stacey Walker is Principal and Managing Partner of Sage Strategies, a national strategic communications consultancy. He has worked on several political campaigns, including two historic presidential bids: Barack Obama’s 2012 reelection and Bernie Sanders’ 2020 campaign, where he served as Iowa Co-Chair. He made history as the first African American elected to the Linn County Board of Supervisors and served as a delegate to the Democratic National Convention. A guest lecturer at the University of Iowa’s Department of Political Science, he writes about progressive politics, movement strategy, and power. This endorsement first appeared on his Substack newsletter, Dispatch: Revolution.

I am endorsing Zach Wahls for the United States Senate. And I want to start with something that rarely gets said in endorsement essays: I am endorsing him, in part, because he is my friend.

I don’t mean friend in the way politicians use the word, as a prefix before the knife. I mean friend in the way that matters. When threats were being made against my life during the summer of 2020, Zach was one of the people who checked in. Not once. Regularly. When legislation was moving through the Iowa Senate that would hurt my constituents, he gave me a heads up before it landed. And beyond the politics, he has been there through the kinds of hard, private moments that life throws at all of us, the ones that never make the news but test who actually shows up. Zach showed up.

But let me be equally clear: I am not endorsing Zach Wahls solely because he is my friend. I am endorsing him because he is the best candidate in this race. There is no stronger debater, no more effective fundraiser, and no more clear-eyed leader running for this seat.

Sophia Joseph is an activist, advocate, and community leader in Cedar Rapids. She wrote this endorsement on behalf of We are CR.

We are CR is a local group made up of community members who long to see positive change in Cedar Rapids. Formed six years ago, we believe in voting together for candidates who represent the best interests of the people, recognizing that real change happens at the polls.

We are CR looks for candidates with strong voting records and progressive stances on issues. However, we also look for integrity, authenticity, a willingness to listen, and the courage to stand up for what is right regardless of opposition.

There was some hesitation before making an endorsement in the U.S. Senate primary pitting State Representative Josh Turek against State Senator Zach Wahls. We see good qualities in both candidates and, like most, feel change is desperately needed. In recent weeks, we’ve seen the passion supporters have for both of these candidates, and we believe this reflects that desire for change, and that democracy is strengthened by having strong candidates who inspire people.

With this in mind, we believe that making an endorsement fits with the key values of our group.

State Senator Molly Donahue represents Iowa Senate district 37, covering part of Cedar Rapids and Marion.

At a time when Iowa faces real challenges—health care access, mental health services, education funding, and the rising cost of living—voters are looking for leadership rooted in lived experience and a genuine commitment to public service. In this Democratic primary for U.S. Senate, Josh Turek offers exactly that.

Turek’s story reflects resilience, service, and results. As a Paralympian, he represented the United States on the world stage, demonstrating discipline, focus, and determination at the highest level. But what makes him uniquely qualified for public office is how he has carried those qualities into his work here in Iowa. In the state legislature, Turek has earned a reputation as a thoughtful and pragmatic leader—someone who listens carefully, builds relationships, and acts with purpose.

Pete D’Alessandro is co-founder of Campaign in a Box, a national consulting firm that specializes in progressive and first-time candidates. He lives in Des Moines. While he is not currently working for a U.S. Senate candidate in Iowa, he previously did work for Nathan Sage.

I am not usually part of the opinion carousel in Democratic primaries—for a lot of reasons. But I’m making an exception because I heard from more people than I ever have, inquiring about what I would be doing on June 2 in the U.S. Senate primary. 

I start with a simple question: “What kind of candidate can rebuild trust with working people across this state?”

The simple answer is, not yet another Iowa Democrat cautiously depending on insider poll-tested talking points from Washington D.C. consultants and dark-money Independent Expenditure organizations influenced by Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. 

What we need is someone willing to fight plainly, directly, and unapologetically for ordinary people. Iowans who feel like the economy and political system has stopped working for them.

That’s why State Senator Zach Wahls earns my support for the United States Senate.

Sami Scheetz is a Linn County Supervisor and formerly served as a state legislator.

Before State Representative Josh Turek was sworn in with me to the Iowa House in January 2023, there was no ramp leading to the well of the chamber. In the 179 years since Iowa became a state, no member of the legislature had ever needed one. Josh did. So a ramp was built.

A few months later, I watched a group of kids in wheelchairs roll down it and sit on the floor of the people’s house. It is still one of the most vivid and meaningful memories I have from my time in the legislature.

Jill Shudak is mayor of Council Bluffs.

Every election cycle, the same thing happens. Washington insiders look at Iowa from 1,100 miles away, pick the candidate who looks best on paper to them, and tell the rest of us who can and can’t win. And every cycle, Iowans are reminded that the people who’ve spent the least time in this state somehow believe they understand it best.

It’s happening again in the 2026 Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Josh Turek, the pick of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, has built his entire campaign on a single argument: that he’s the most electable Democrat to take on Ashley Hinson. It’s a clean pitch. It’s also wrong.

The actual data tells a different story.

Mary Riche is a lifelong feminist, past president of Planned Parenthood in Iowa, founding officer of the 501(c)(3) Iowa Coalition for Reproductive Freedom, speaker about women leaders not included in our history books or education curriculum, and an advocate for reproductive freedom and abortion rights. You can reach her via email at maryriche@gmail.com.

Josh Turek isn’t just a strong candidate—he is the Democrat who can win back Iowa’s U.S. Senate seat. Josh brings the disciplined work ethic, grit, and proven ability to win at a time when Iowans need results for their problems, not political talking points.

I enthusiastically support Josh Turek because he has shown he’s a winner in a tough district, and can connect with voters across political lines. He was re-elected by a five-point margin in the “reddest” seat held by a Democrat in all of Iowa—at the same time President Donald Trump carried the state by double digits. 

Josh has built his record by listening to Iowans first—and working across differences to get results that matter locally. His likely Republican opponent, U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson, offers a clear contrast. In Washington, she is a partisan politician who votes with her party’s leadership for the president’s national agenda.

Iowa’s 2026 ballot access controversies lacked the drama of the last midterm election cycle, when one statewide official almost missed the Democratic primary ballot, and a leading candidate for U.S. Senate had to go to the Iowa Supreme Court to keep her candidacy alive.

Still, four candidates failed to qualify for this year’s June 2 primary ballot. Two others had close calls before the State Objection Panel determined they (barely) met the legal standard.

Future candidates, staff, and volunteers can learn from the mistakes that tripped up Julie Stauch, Xavier Carrigan, Jared Gadson, and Eric Pearson, and nearly ended the campaigns of Eddie Andrews and Mike Bousselot.

Ben Nizzi is President of Ironworkers Local 67 in Des Moines.

In more than fourteen years as a member of Ironworkers Local 67, I have never seen our union make an elected official a dues-paying member. Not once. Until now.

A few weeks ago, Ironworkers Local 67 welcomed Iowa State Senator Zach Wahls into our union. This is the first time in our history we have extended this honor to an elected official. I want to explain why, because it speaks to Zach’s character and why Iowa workers need him in the U.S. Senate.

Despite Iowa’s rightward shift over the past decade, our state is shaping up to be an important 2026 battleground. For the first time since 1968, we have open races for governor and U.S. Senate in the same year. Two of the four U.S. House districts are among the top Democratic targets nationwide. President Donald Trump’s approval rating may be underwater in Iowa, and Democrats are poised to nominate well-funded candidates for state and federal offices.

History tells us that midterm elections often favor the party out of power. Nevertheless, the Iowa landscape is much better for Republicans now than it was during the 2018 election cycle, when Fred Hubbell came within 3 points of winning the governor’s race and Democrats won three U.S. House seats.

It’s time to revisit a topic I explored last June. The GOP’s massive voter registration advantage still makes it hard to construct a winning scenario for Democrats in Iowa’s statewide races—even if Trump’s many failures drive down Republican turnout.

State Representative Josh Turek is a four-time Paralympian and two-time gold medalist for Team USA, a former professional wheelchair basketball player and a candidate for U.S. Senate. 

As the Olympics come to a close and the Paralympics begin in early March, I’m sure a lot of us are thinking about what it means to cheer for Team USA. 

Representing the United States at four Paralympic games was the highlight of my wheelchair basketball career, and one of the greatest honors of my life. Watching them raise the American flag with USA across my chest, a gold medal around my neck, and the stars and stripes over my shoulders, I was proud to be an American. 

This Olympics, I know many Americans are troubled by the direction of our country.

Chuck Isenhart is an investigative reporter, photographer, and recovering Iowa state legislator offering research, analysis, education, and public affairs advocacy at his Substack newsletter Iowa Public Policy Dude, where this essay first appeared.

In Iowa, Council Bluffs and Dubuque, where I live, have a lot in common.

Council Bluffs is on the Missouri River. Dubuque is on the Mississippi River. Both rivers are prone to flooding. Dubuque’s population is 59,000. Council Bluffs is about 63,000.

Council Bluffs has the Loess Hills. Dubuque has the bluffs of the Driftless. Both are known for their blue-collar industrial heritage with immigrant, working-class populations. Both are crisscrossed by railroads. Both have a strong emphasis on historic preservation and cultural institutions. Our chambers of commerce host first-class legislative receptions.

William R. Staplin is a former scientist specializing in utilizing molecular biology techniques to investigate RNA plant and animal viruses, research and development of vaccines to protect against infectious viruses; husband to Ruth A. Staplin; father to two independently minded young college students; cancer and spinal cord disability survivor; supporter of girls and women’s equal rights, reproductive rights, bodily autonomy and healthcare; supporter of reclaiming LGTBQIA+ civil rights and liberties; supporter of Black and Brown Lives Matter; full-time greyhound owner and walking companion to Tailgater. 

This fall, my wife Ruth and I attended a meet and greet fundraiser for State Representative Josh Turek “4” Iowa. Four was Josh’s jersey number as an elite athlete and member of the Men’s Paralympic Wheelchair Basketball Team. He’s now seeking the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. (Marine veteran Nathan Sage and State Senator Zach Wahls are the other Democratic contenders.)

It was also important to me as a person of disability and my wife to attend. I wanted to personally meet this former professional wheelchair basketball player, disability advocate, and Iowa House member from Council Bluffs.

Gary Berkland is the Belmond-Klemme School Board president.

I’m a lifelong Iowan, a Vietnam veteran, a small-town lawyer, and yes—a registered Republican. I’ve voted for plenty of Republicans over the years, but this election, I’m proud to be supporting Democrat Zach Wahls for the United States Senate.

That might surprise some folks, but it really shouldn’t. Zach represents the kind of leadership both parties used to value: honest, practical, and grounded in Iowa common sense. He’s part of a new generation that’s more interested in solving problems than scoring partisan points, and that’s exactly what our country needs.

Rick Morain is the former publisher and owner of the Jefferson Herald, for which he writes a regular column. This essay first appeared on Substack.

As I write this column, the United States government is still shut down. Federal employees are not getting paid.

No, wait, that’s not quite true. Most federal employees are not getting paid.

Who’s still receiving a paycheck?

That would be President Donald Trump, Vice President J.D. Vance, members of Congress, and federal judges. The Constitution requires that they be paid no matter what. Their staffs—and those amount to many thousands of people—are continuing to work, but without receiving their salaries. They’ll be entitled to their back pay once the government reopens.

A new Iowa poll is testing messages about a $4,000 tax credit to help families cover “approved education expenses,” and suggests that approach may save taxpayer money currently spent on children enrolled in public schools.

It’s not clear who commissioned the text survey, which has been in the field in recent days. The questionnaire points to Randy Feenstra’s campaign for governor, which is technically still in the “exploratory” phase, or some entity planning to support Feenstra for governor. Many of the questions use preferred Republican frames (“education freedom,” parental choice, “limiting government overreach”). The poll asks how important it is for Iowa’s next governor to “work to improve K-12 education,” and tests only one potential match-up: Randy Feenstra vs. Rob Sand. (Last month, Bleeding Heartland covered a different poll testing messages about Feenstra and Sand.)

Homeschoolers are an important Republican constituency, especially among social conservatives. Families who send their kids to private schools—almost all of which are Christian or Catholic—would also welcome an education tax credit, in addition to the taxpayer assistance they already receive through Iowa’s school voucher program (“education savings accounts”).

Feenstra has good reason to search for ways to shore up his support with the “education freedom” crowd. His underwhelming victory over a little-known 2024 primary challenger highlighted troubles on his right flank. He is unpopular among property rights activists who oppose the use of eminent domain to build Summit Carbon Solutions’ proposed CO2 pipeline. He has skipped forums involving other Republican candidates for governor, including an Iowa Faith and Freedom Coalition event in July. Feenstra’s exploratory committee has the resources to pay for opinion research.

A recent poll of “likely Republican voters,” conducted by American Viewpoint, found Feenstra “in a commanding position,” with 41 percent support in the governor’s race and no other GOP candidate above 5 percent. A cautionary note: American Viewpoint’s polls for Feenstra’s U.S. House campaign found the incumbent with a roughly 50-point lead over challenger Kevin Virgil before the 2024 GOP primary. Feenstra ended up winning the nomination in Iowa’s fourth Congressional district by a margin of 60.1 percent to 39.4 percent.

A pair of recent polls have tried to gauge how the arrest of then Des Moines Superintendent Ian Roberts could affect Iowa’s U.S. Senate race.

One text survey, which was in the field this past week, seeks to determine how much respondents have heard about the incident, who “bears the most responsibility” for the situation, and whether the Roberts controversy gives respondents concerns about Des Moines School Board President Jackie Norris, who is one of the Democrats running for Senate. A different version of the survey tests another negative message about Norris’ past political work and support for “radical DEI policies” on the school board.

Staff for Norris did not respond to inquiries about the survey, but the question wording (enclosed in full below) strongly suggests the Norris campaign commissioned it. Notably, the poll tests U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson (the Republican front-runner) against Norris twice, and Hinson against State Representative Josh Turek once, but does not ask respondents about their preference between Hinson and either State Senator Zach Wahls or Iraq War veteran Nathan Sage. It also tests messages about Norris, but not about any other Democratic candidate.

The National Republican Senatorial Committee, the main campaign arm of U.S. Senate Republicans, commissioned a separate poll of 579 “Democratic primary voters via text-to-web surveys” on September 29 and 30, a few days after Roberts’ arrest. The NRSC has not released full results from that poll, the questionnaire, or the screen used to identify “Democratic primary voters.” Jennie Taer published a few findings in an article on the conservative website The Daily Wire.

“The system is broken,” declared Libertarian Thomas Laehn as he kicked off his U.S. Senate campaign on October 11.

The Greene County attorney, who became the first Libertarian elected to a partisan office in Iowa in 2018, styled his case against two-party governance as a two-count “indictment” of the 535 members of Congress.

One of his central arguments could appeal to many disaffected Republicans.

UPDATE: On September 29, the Des Moines School Board learned that the Iowa Board of Education Examiners had revoked Roberts’ administrator license, and received from federal authorities a copy of the final order of removal and other documentation indicating that Roberts was not authorized to work in the U.S. The board held another special meeting at which members voted to put Roberts on unpaid leave. They also gave his attorney until noon on September 30 to provide documents supporting his claim to citizenship. Otherwise the school district will start the process of terminating his contract. Original post follows.

Members of the Des Moines School Board voted unanimously on September 27 to place Superintendent Dr. Ian Roberts on paid administrative leave, one day after U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) detained him. ICE has said Roberts is unlawfully present in the U.S. and lacks work authorization.

In support of the motion she offered at the special meeting, school board member Kim Martorano said, “While there is still much that we don’t know, what we do know is that Dr. Roberts is currently unavailable to perform his duties as superintendent.” She said Iowa Code Chapter 279 and “standard district practice” called for putting Roberts on paid administrative leave “pending further information. The board may revisit this at any time that we have obtained additional concrete information relevant to Dr. Roberts’ status.”

It’s been a wildly successful week for U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson.

Three days after U.S. Senator Joni Ernst confirmed she won’t seek re-election, the three-term member of Congress all but wrapped up the Republican nomination for Iowa’s Senate seat. President Donald Trump’s “Complete and Total Endorsement” shut the door on any realistic chance Hinson could lose the June 2026 primary.

But Hinson’s embrace of the Washington establishment could alienate a segment of Republicans she will need after the primary. And her slavish allegiance to Trump could become a liability for the likely nominee in the general election campaign.

U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley dodged a journalist’s question this week about his plans for the 2028 campaign.

During the latest edition of Grassley’s “Capitol Hill Report,” released on August 20, Marion County Express publisher Steve Woodhouse asked whether the senator planned to seek re-election again. Grassley replied, “This is the summer of my third year. So you need to ask that question in about two years.”

Grassley will turn 92 years old next month and would be 95 when his current term ends. I doubt he will seek another six-year term in 2028; his campaign’s fundraising totals (less than $100,000 per quarter since 2022) are much lower than what one would expect from a senator planning another re-election bid. But it’s notable that he is not ready to rule out the prospect.

Taylor Kohn is an Iowan advocate and publicist currently residing in Minnesota.

On the first day of Rob Sand’s campaign for governor, he gave an interview to WHO Radio. When the host Simon Conway asked whether trans girls should be allowed to play sports, Sand replied with a flat “no.”

The comment was poorly received by many, prompting the Des Moines Register to reach out to Sand for an interview on the subject. Sand declined, instead providing a statement doubling down on his exclusionary stance: “I’ve been clear that I support common sense policies like the law protecting fairness in women’s sports, and that this year’s law legalizing discrimination in all places of life is wrong.”

It is, of course, dishonest to say in the same breath that one opposes discrimination and that a certain type of discrimination is “common sense.”

Politico set off another round of speculation about U.S. Senator Joni Ernst’s future this week. Jordain Carney and Rachael Bade reported on July 10 that Ernst “is the next GOP senator on retirement watch,” with U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson (IA-02) “waiting in the wings” if the incumbent opts not to seek a third term.

Hinson brushed off the rumors, telling WHO Radio host Simon Conway she’s “100 percent on Team Joni” and hopes Ernst will run again. She added, “The DC media loves to obsess over things.” Notably, Hinson didn’t clarify whether she would run for Senate next year if the seat were open—nor did Conway ask her.

I’ve long believed Hinson is laying the groundwork to run for Senate as soon as Iowa has an open seat—presumably in 2028, when Senator Chuck Grassley’s eighth term will end.

So while I still expect Ernst to seek re-election, the latest coverage got me thinking: who would be the tougher opponent for the Democratic nominee in 2026? It’s usually harder to defeat an incumbent than to flip an open seat. But this race might be the exception that proves the rule.

The last time Donald Trump was president, Iowa Democrats had a pretty good midterm election. The party’s candidates defeated two Republican members of Congress, came surprisingly close to beating U.S. Representative Steve King, had a net gain of five Iowa House seats (and almost a sixth), and came within 3 points of winning the governor’s race.

Many Democrats like their chances of improving on that tally in 2026.

But before they get too excited, they need to understand the terrain is now much more favorable to Iowa Republicans than it was during the 2018 election cycle.

A huge GOP voter registration advantage, combined with consistently higher turnout for Republicans in midterm years, make it hard to construct a winning scenario for Democrats in Iowa’s 2026 statewide elections.

To overcome those long odds, Democrats will need not only strong GOTV and good messaging, but also a better voter registration effort over the coming year than the party has seen in decades.

Iowa’s 2026 U.S. Senate race had its first viral moment on May 30, when an unscripted comment from Senator Joni Ernst generated massive coverage across Iowa and national news outlets.

The words Ernst blurted out in frustration at that town hall meeting may or may not have staying power in the next Senate campaign.

But we’ll definitely keep hearing what the senator said before and after making that gaffe. Republicans around the country, including Iowa’s U.S. House members, have used the same false claims in defense of the budget reconciliation bill now pending in the Senate.

Those statements were among more than a dozen messages about Medicaid and the federal food assistance program known as SNAP that Republicans tested this spring in telephone polls. I was a respondent for one of the surveys in early May and have transcribed the questionnaire at the end of this post.

I don’t know which GOP-aligned entity paid for the robo-poll I received, but it’s clear the memo on how to spin deep Medicaid and SNAP cuts has gone out to all Republicans in Congress.

President Donald Trump’s first 100 days back in the White House have brought the U.S. an economy weakened by tariffs, a depreciating dollar, and the worst stock market performance during a new presidency since 1974. Trump now has historically low approval ratings, even on his handling of the economy—which had long been his strongest public opinion metric. Economists and market analysts increasingly see a recession likely to come this year, and consumer confidence just dropped to its lowest level since the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic.

But to hear U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson tell the story, the country has experienced “100 days of WINNING under President Trump!” The Republican from Iowa’s second Congressional district told reporters on May 2 that the president is “ushering in the new era, the golden age for our economy.”

Whether she’s speaking to a national television audience, her social media followers, the press, or a hostile town hall crowd, Hinson is working hard to demonstrate her loyalty to Trump.

Her tight embrace of a polarizing president could hurt her with swing voters in 2026 but may be essential for her 2028 ambitions.

More than a year before Iowa’s 2026 primary election, Democrats already have one announced candidate for U.S. Senate (Nathan Sage) and two officially running for the U.S. House (Travis Terrell in the first district and Kevin Techau in the second). More Democrats will launch campaigns for Iowa’s statewide and federal offices in the coming months.

So it’s a good time to preview how this website will cover the next round of Iowa Democratic primaries.

GUIDELINES FOR MY OWN REPORTING

First, I don’t plan to endorse a contender in any competitive Democratic primary. My goal is to produce in-depth reporting on the major races, with details about the candidates and the political landscape that readers may not find in other media outlets.

Second, my coverage will focus on candidates with the capacity to run a credible statewide or district-wide campaign. I don’t mean just front-runners; plenty of little-known candidates have built a following and eventually won the nomination for a major office. I mean that when deciding where to spend my time and energy on individual candidate profiles or surveys of the primary field, I will be looking for signs that a candidate is doing the work this kind of campaign requires.

“The working class has been working their ass off every day to survive and make ends meet for their families,” Nathan Sage told me this week. Making working people’s lives better is the driving force of his U.S. Senate campaign.

At least four Democrats are thinking seriously about running against two-term Republican incumbent Joni Ernst. Sage was the first to make it official, on April 16.

Sage discussed his background, beliefs, and reasons for running in an interview with Bleeding Heartland the day before his campaign launch. The full video of our exchange is at the end of this post.

Douglas Burns is a fourth-generation Iowa journalist. He is the co-founder of the Western Iowa Journalism Foundation and a member of the Iowa Writers’ Collaborative, where this article first appeared on The Iowa Mercury newsletter. His family operated the Carroll Times Herald for 93 years in Carroll, Iowa where Burns resides.

Many politicians can persuade you to believe in them. That’s a commonly reached feat. But the defining leaders, elected officials like Tom Harkin, Robert Ray, Henry Wallace, and Harold Hughes, are able to summon the inspiration to get Iowans believing in themselves, their own worth and futures.

More than any other contemporary active Democrat, State Representative Josh Turek has the potential to earn the mantle in the ongoing—and now desperately needed—legacy those Iowans with surpassing public-mindedness built.

We are in an era in the United States that can be described as The Great Deconstruction. We are broken. The anger in the streets at “Hands Off!” protests and in other arenas, in real life and online, is fierce and urgent. Soon, and at a more accelerated political pace than is traditional, Democrats will begin vetting candidates for the U.S. Senate race in 2026, a contest with the politically formidable Joni Ernst. The two-term Republican senator has a rare cultural connectivity; her journey as a farm girl and combat veteran carries enormous appeal across the state.

UPDATE: Wahls formally launched his Senate bid on June 11. You can watch his interview with Laura Belin about the campaign here. Original post follows.

Dave Price had the scoop for Gray Media on March 28: State Senator Zach Wahls is “certainly listening” to those who have encouraged him to run for U.S. Senate in 2026.

Wahls is the first Democrat to publicly express interest in this race. Two-term Senator Joni Ernst has not formally launched her re-election campaign but is widely expected to seek a third term.

Wahls told Price he will decide whether to run for higher office after the Iowa legislative session. But he’s already criticizing Ernst, most recently in a March 26 news release that tied the senator to Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s “reckless mishandling of military plans” in a Signal group chat.

“You suck, Joni! That’s just the nicest way I can summarize how we’re all feeling about your reign so far,” says Joshua Smith in the first digital ad promoting his Republican campaign for Iowa’s U.S. Senate seat.

The video previews what will be an aggressive campaign by Senator Joni Ernst’s 2026 primary challenger from the right.

Iowa’s all-Republican delegation voted the same way on almost every bill that came before both chambers during the 118th Congress, which wrapped up its work in the early hours of December 21. But one of the last bills sent to President Joe Biden, the Social Security Fairness Act, revealed an unusual disagreement among the Iowans serving in the U.S. House and Senate.

When the House approved the bill by 327 votes to 75 in November, U.S. Representatives Mariannette Miller-Meeks (IA-01), Ashley Hinson (IA-02), Zach Nunn (IA-03), and Randy Feenstra (IA-04) were part of the bipartisan majority.

When the Senate passed the bill by 76 votes to 20 shortly after midnight on December 21, Senators Chuck Grassley and Joni Ernst were among the 20 Republicans who voted no.

The Iowans’ comments on the Social Security Fairness Act illustrate how differently politicians with similar ideologies can view a complex public policy fix.